Policy

Green hydrogen has been proposed as a route to decarbonisation for heating, transport, energy storage and other uses.  This report examined the economic case for green hydrogen in Northern Ireland to displace the use of fossil fuels and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis found that green hydrogen is not an economically sensible route for the decarbonisation of any sector of the Northern Ireland economy today. Hydrogen will always be substantially more expensive than the electricity needed to produce it due to the many efficiency losses. Replacing current energy used with hydrogen will require at least twice as much generation capacity as electrification and realistically three times as much. While current sector requirements and use cases are better served by electrification or other alternatives there remains the prospective future uses for green hydrogen for e-fuel and e-chemical production as well as potential use as a long-term, inter seasonal energy store.

Northern Ireland’s future must be firmly anchored in the use of renewable energy. This major report, developed in consultation with industry leaders, senior government policy specialists and leading academics was launched at the first CASE Energy Summit. Ambition, Action and Progress were the driving themes of this seminal report which was a rallying cry for urgent action to enable the renewable energy revolution. Northern Ireland cannot continue to wait while others invest, at pace, to secure the jobs and green industries of the future. Northern Ireland was once a global powerhouse built on a unique combination of renewables, agriculture and manufacturing. It is time to confine procrastination to the past. The drive to net zero gives us the opportunity to repurpose our strengths and demonstrate how we can deliver a more sustainable, more prosperous, more inclusive future for the generations to come. If we fail to move quickly the opportunity will be lost.

This report evaluated the economic costs and potential for CCUS in Northern Ireland. The key messages were that given the dispersed nature of CO2 sources in NI then the cost of conventional CCS would be excessive for NI industry and power generation compared to GB, mainly because of the substantial collection and CO2 transport costs. Power costs could increase by 53% if CCS was mandated. Alternative, biological-based solutions, or e-fuel production from CO2 were thought to be a potential way forward.

Opportunities to develop a NI based, non-fossil synthetic and/or e-fuels industry which could complement existing biofuels production for regional use or potential export were investigated in this report along with future fuel demand from different transport sectors in NI. Key findings were that there were opportunities for shipping and aviation fuels longer term and for road and rail potential for drop-in replacements over the period of transition to electrification or hydrogen for HGVs. Existing biogenic feedstocks from NI were not sufficient to fully to displace current fossil fuel use in NI but may, with green hydrogen, address those remaining needs after energy efficiency measures and electrification have been rolled out. Cenex partnered with Queen’s to deliver this report.

Biochar-based carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in Northern Ireland was explored in this report. Biochar is one of a number of ways to capture carbon from the atmosphere. Northern Ireland’s relatively large agricultural sector offers both a route to reliable and inexpensive CDR and a potential new revenue stream for the country’s farmers. The report showed that biochar offers a route to sequestering a total CO2 removal potential of 420 ktCO2e, just based on the CCC’s recommended use of land for bioenergy crops. This could create additional revenue of £300m for the NI economy, up to 2000 jobs in rural areas and could decarbonise the concrete industry in NI.

In this report the potential use of CO2 in biorefineries to produce e-fuels, biochemicals or animal feed was investigated. In addition, the potential for enhancing plant growth in a vertical farming set-up was explored. Key findings were that there was considerable potential for a biorefinery based approach to CO2 utilisation and this was economically viable when co-located and combined with related activities. Vertical farming was a potential route to sequestering significant amounts of emitted CO2 and again was economically viable and could displace significant amounts of imported food. Both the biorefinery and vertical farm approaches were most financially viable as an integrated system such as with an AD plant and/or hydrogen production.

This research report reviews and assesses the suitability of possible support scheme options to incentivise renewable investment in Northern Ireland for power generation. A variety of technologies and support scheme options were quantitatively assessed and ranked. In terms of technologies, onshore wind ranked highest in the analysis with CCGT, energy storage, hydro and OCGT in joint second place. This work examined the most common support scheme mechanisms, and it found that the most appropriate scheme for Northern Ireland is a CfD scheme because, based on the analysis and financial modelling, it is more equitable for society as it spreads the investment risk between the generators and the regulator and also reduces market volatility. A levelised cost of energy (LCOE) financial model was built to assess the various support scheme options in Northern Ireland. The results show that between 2030 and 2040 the average LCOE for the generation portfolio rises but then falls from 2040 to 2050.

Clean Energy is the future for Northern Ireland. As the country decarbonises the use of fossil fuels declines, and greenhouse gas emissions reduce. This report looks at the opportunities for clean energy to drive productivity, competitiveness and energy security using native renewable sources of wind, solar, tidal and biogenic carbon resources. The work identifies how a clean energy transition can drive the creation of well-paid jobs and rural prosperity while reducing fuel poverty. Seven main recommendations covered the barriers (current policy and regulation), opportunities (enterprise and investment) as well as the training and research requirements to support the energy transition in Northern Ireland.

CASE partnered with Cenex to deliver this report looking at the transition to zero-emission HGVs. The report was commissioned by the Energy group in DfE in 2022 and published in July 2023. The report is downloadable from here: Transport Energy Research Project 3: Low Carbon Transition for HGVs The analysis for the report looked at all potential forms of zero-emission technology including biodiesel, biomethane, green hydrogen and battery electric (BEV). At the time of writing there was considerable uncertainty about the technology and costs for both BEV and green hydrogen. More recent work by CASE and EPEC has shown that there has been very rapid advances in BEV technology and that green hydrogen is unlikely to be a major part of the future of HGVs in Northern Ireland because of the higher cost of both hydrogen HGVs and the green hydrogen fuel as well as difficult logistics for fuel supply compared to BEV HGVs.

CASE partnered with Cenex to deliver this report looking at the transition to Electric Vehicles (EVs) in Northern Ireland. The report was commissioned by the Energy group in DfE in 2022 and published in June 2023. The report is downloadable from here: Transport Energy Research Project 1: Transition to EVs As EVs have much greater energy efficiency than fossil-fuel powered vehicles then energy demand was forecast to drop by 2040 to one third of what was needed in 2020 (32.5 GWh). The study showed that 10,000 public charge points would be needed by 2030 and by 2040 this would increase to almost 25,000 with increasing demand for rapid and ultra-rapid charging points. The demand headroom on the electricity network around fuelling stations was assessed as sufficient in most cases to meet demand.